US running short on electronic ballasts
US running short on electronic ballasts
Contrary to industry expectations less than a year ago, demand for electronic ballasts in the United States and Canada is continuing to outstrip increases in manufacturing capacity.
Customers ordering electronic ballasts today may have to wait six months or longer for delivery from most major manufacturers, according to a just-completed survey by E Source. The long lead times for deliveries of electronic ballasts are delaying many lighting retrofit projects planned for the first half of 1993 and slowing some utility demand-side management (DSM) programs.
The recurring back-order situation, which has existed for much of the past 3 years, has had various consequences:
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Manufacturers are seeking better ways of communicating and cooperating with electric utilities in order to keep abreast of DSM program developments.
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Some national DSM contractors and lighting service companies have begun stockpiling ballasts for their own projects.
Original equipment manufacturers and distributors are increasingly committing themselves to multi-year contracts for electronic ballast supplies.
- Some utilities have extended installation deadlines and/or provided rebates for substitute products.
- In at least a few cases, delays in acquiring electronic ballasts have adversely affected overall DSM program savings.
Many in the industry remain optimistic that the planned large increases in production capacity will finally begin to reduce backlogs by the third quarter of 1993, and some even anticipate a glut in the market by 1994. Nonetheless, a tight market seems certain for at least the next six to nine months.
The market for electronic ballasts in the US has grown exponentially during the past three years. From 1990 through 1991, electronic ballasts were consistently in short supply. Manufacturers jacked up production and, from late 1991, most could ship orders immediately. Between spring and mid-summer 1992, however, manufacturers' delivery times changed dramatically. Many orders placed in July and August 1992 had still not been filled in late February 1993, more than 32 weeks later.
According to preliminary estimates, E Source says that 14 million units were shipped in 1992 in the US, a 68% increase compared with 1991. Census data indicate that electronic ballasts accounted for more than 16% of the total number of fluorescent lamp ballasts sold in the third quarter of 1992.
Manufacturers are now justifiably concerned that the number of back-orders may exceed the actual demand, since various customers have apparently placed multiple orders for the same project. There is no doubt that some customers, facing frustratingly distant delivery dates, resorted to placing orders with more than one manufacturer, intending to cancel all but the first order delivered. According to some estimates, these duplicate orders may account for as much as 25% of the overall backlog.
Ballasts for the much heralded 8-foot, T8 lamps have been extremely difficult to obtain. Component shortages have reportedly slowed the delivery of these electronic ballasts, now back-ordered through September 1993 for at least one major manufacturer.
All manufacturers interviewed by E Source indicated that they are aggressively seeking to increase production capacity, and most are now running their product lines overtime.
The rapidly evolving nature of the industry, ongoing improvements in design, and the lack of specific performance standards for electronic ballasts further complicate the lives of manufacturers. Part of the problem is that manufacturers are struggling to dramatically increase production at the same time as product designs continue to be refined. For instance, an electronic ballast in production today may be superseded in 6 months because of improvements in circuit board design.
Note: This article is based on an E Source memo.