Soaring CFL Sales
Soaring CFL Sales
Global sales of compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) grew at a robust 11% in 1999, achieving record sales of 432 million units. Since 1988, annual CFL sales have increased nearly tenfold.
Because CFLs last for several years, there are an estimated 1300 million in use today consuming roughly 20000 megawatts of electricity instead of the about 80000 megawatts needed to run the same number of incandescent lamps. The electricity saved by these CFLs is equivalent to more than 28 average-sized coal-fired power plants. In 1999, CFLs were outsold 25 to 1 by incandescent bulbs, but because they last 10 times longer, they accounted for 33% of the lighting capacity sold if CFLs and incandescent lamps are taken together.
Electricity savings translates into preventing pollution - for instance, the 275 million CFLs being used in North America at the start of 2000 will prevent 3.5 million tons of carbon and 69000 tons of sulfur emissions this year. CFLs also reduce energy bills. In Scandinavia, for example, a user can purchase a high-quality CFL for 1.50 euros (~US$1.50) from the retailer Ikea. Average residential electricity in Denmark is 0.13euros/kWh ($0.13/kWh), thus the payback on a lamp burning 4 hours per day is reached in less than six months. Looking at bulb replacement and electricity savings over the 10000-hour life of the lamp, a CFL has a net present value of 49 euros (about $49) - 12 times the price of the lamp.
Recognizing the benefits of CFLs, many governments are conducting national promotion programs. China for example has just completed a three-year Green Lights program to both expand the market for CFLs and improve their quality. Between 1996 and 1999, China experienced 347% growth in domestic sales while positioning itself as one of the global leaders in manufacturing. The Asian market for CFLs has more than doubled since 1995, to the point where in 1999 it was twice that of North America.
See Figure and Tables:
CFL sales: Trends of all regions
World sales of compact fluorescent lamps,
Precent growth/annum
World sales of compact fluorescent lamps,
Millions of Units Sold/annum
Another program aiming at several countries is the Efficient Lighting Initiative (ELI) developed by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) with the support of Global Environment Facility (GEF). The ELI will work in seven countries to promote and expand the market for CFLs and other efficient lighting technologies (see IAEEL 1/99). Russell Sturm at the IFC emphasizes the benefits to customers and to society as a whole. "The rapid take-up of efficient lighting technology will not only save household income, but will also allow the countries to meet their energy services needs more cost-effectively, freeing up scarce capital for other critical development," he says. "Programs like this provide the global environmental benefit of reduced greenhouse gas emissions at less than $5 per metric ton. CO2, including the 'indirect' impacts of the program on the lighting market."
South Africa is one of the participating ELI countries. With matched funding from Eskom, the country's national electric utility, an estimated $10 million will be spent over the next three years to promote CFLs. Says Barry Bredenkamp of Eskom, who is coordinating the project: "Our CFL program seeks to help all segments of the South African population. In the lower-income areas, we are combining the program with our ongoing electrification drive, where we are literally helping households move from candles to compact fluorescents."
And CFL technology continues to improve, lowering costs and improving quality. The lamp "ballast" - the bulky electronics that enable the lamp to run - is the most expensive part of a CFL, contributing about 70% to the overall manufacturing cost. Steve Johnson of California-based Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory sees future improvements. "New circuit designs for CFL ballasts will make them smaller and less expensive, while also improving power quality and increasing light output," he says. "In about two years, I would expect to see advanced designs so small they could fit in the metal screw-cap of a normal lightbulb."
With improved performance providing better energy services, CFL sales are likely to continue their climb well into the future. However, in parallel there is an increased focus on dedicated CFL luminaires on behalf of energy agencies and similar players (see for instance the EU luminaire design competition). Whether this shift of focus towards dedicated luminaires will shift sales toward pin-based CFLs remains to be seen. However, the increased competition between improved dedicated CFLs and pin-based CFLs should lead to increased overall sales.
Michael Scholand
This article was adapted from a report in Vital Signs 2000, published by the Worldwatch Institute and W.W. Norton in May 2000; read about Vital Signs on: www.worldwatch.org.
The author, Michael Scholand, is an energy efficiency consultant based
in the United States.