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The Dynamics of Energy Efficient Lighting in Sweden: How Much Can Really be Achieved and How Fast?
Joel SwisherLund University, Sweden Lena Christiansson Lund University, Sweden Claes Hedenström Vattenfall AB, Sweden Abstract This paper discusses the results of a time-dynamic analysis of the possible effects of government and utility-sponsored energy-efficiency programs on lighting energy use in Sweden. Efficient technologies include improved lamps, ballasts, luminaires, controls and system designs. We develop dynamic scenarios of electricity demand and efficiency improvement, based on various types of energy performance standards and utility demand-side management (DSM) investment. The scenarios account for the dynamics of equipment turnover, existing trends in technology, and the distribution of energy efficiency among equipment models on the market. We examine the achievable rate of efficiency improvement, which increases over time as new energy-saving opportunities appear in new and renovated buildings but is limited by the rate of turnover of existing buildings and equipment. Efficiency measures are further constrained by administrative costs, market penetration limits and the technical and institutional feasibility of the efficiency measures. Many of the technologies are cost-effective and likely to be implemented in time, especially if electricity prices. However, neither existing trends in technology nor higher energy prices are sufficient to prevent substantial lighting energy growth in all sectors. Residential lighting energy can be reduced by the use of compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs), but their adoption requires both improved economics and increased consumer awareness. For non-residential lighting, the scenarios show that demand-side management (DSM) programs, based on a utility-sponsored shared-savings approach, could keep energy use constant until 2010 despite 45 percent growth in energy services. The programs must capture efficiency options both in the new and replacement market and also through retrofits of existing systems. Energy performance standards can capture many of the least-expensive efficiency options, allowing utilities to focus on other measures, including retrofits. In the absence of standards, it is essential to begin programs for new and replacement equipment immediately, as these are one-time opportunities, while the timing of retrofit programs can be flexible, depending on the need for savings and available resources.
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